India's economy: growth without accountability
Key facts, quotes and infographics for journalists
GDP grew at an average of 6.2% a year from 2014-15 to 2025-26, against 6.8% in the UPA decade. Excluding the pandemic year 2020-21 the average was 7.3%, higher than the UPA's. The share of workers in regular jobs with social security fell from 11.5% in 2017-18 to 10.1% in 2023-24 (PLFS), and V-Dem reclassified India as an "electoral autocracy" in March 2021. The 2017-18 consumption survey was withheld and the 2021 census postponed. Cesses and surcharges, which states do not share in, reached 24.4% of the Union's gross tax revenue in 2020-21, and the GST took most independent indirect taxation away from the states. In 2022-23, the latest year published, the top 1% took 22.6% of national income, a higher share than at any point since 1922, including the inter-war colonial period (World Inequality Lab). The bottom half's share fell from 18.8% in 2004 to 13.9% in 2017 and was 15.0% in 2022-23.
Before you quote this research, you should know who wrote it.
Dr. Varna Sri Raman is a former Manmohan Singh Fellow of the All India Professionals’ Congress (AIPC), a department of the Indian National Congress. This work began before the fellowship. This project compares a Congress-led government (UPA, 2004-14) with its successor (NDA, 2014-26) and concludes against the successor on eight of nine measures. That is a party interest in the conclusion, and it is stated here so no one has to find it out later.
The research is unfunded. No institution, government, party, foundation or commercial entity paid for it. No party body commissioned, reviewed or approved it.
The project makes no claim of neutrality. It offers five things in its place. The complete dataset, the construction code and the source of the paper are published. Both political eras are computed by the same script. The one measure in the scorecard that improved under the current government (inflation) is reported as improved, and the improvement is explicitly not credited to policy. Corrections are published, including one that had run in this project's own favour. And the governance finding is corroborated by an independent study using a different method.
Full declaration: someperspective.info → Methodology → Declaration of interests.
Economic growth has coexisted with social regression.
Regular employees with any social-security cover, share of all workers (2023-24)
Youth (15-29) unemployed or underemployed, 2022 (ILO and IHD)
Of employment added after 2019 was self-employment (ILO and IHD)
| Fiscal Indicator | Reference | 2014-15 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax devolution (% of gross tax revenue) | Finance Commission share of the divisible pool: 32% (13th), 42% (14th), 41% (15th) | 27.1% | 33.9% |
| Cesses and surcharges (% of gross tax revenue, not shared with states) | Outside the divisible pool | 13.5% | 18.0% (24.4% in 2020-21) |
| Non-Finance-Commission grants (% of Union transfers) | Mostly centrally sponsored schemes | 40.0% (an accounting break) | 31.4% |
Sources: 15th Finance Commission, Table 3.8; Union Receipt Budgets; 16th Finance Commission, Annexure 7.1. Devolution rose after the 14th Finance Commission. The cess share peaked in 2020-21 and has fallen since. The 2014-15 grants share is high because centrally sponsored scheme funds began to flow through state budgets that year.
#IndiaEconomy #JobsCrisis
#Inequality #IndiaData
| Indicator | Earlier | Later | Change | Visual Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth, era average | 6.8% (UPA, 2004-05 to 2013-14) | 6.2% (NDA, 2014-15 to 2025-26) | -0.6pp | Line chart |
| GDP growth, era average excluding the worst year | 7.2% (UPA, excluding 2008-09) | 7.3% (NDA, excluding 2020-21) | +0.1pp | Line chart |
| CPI inflation, era average | 8.0% (UPA, 2004-2013) | 4.8% (NDA, 2014-2026) | -3.2pp | Line chart |
| Unemployment (PLFS, usual status) | 6.0% (2017-18, persons aged 15 and above) | 3.1% (2025) | -2.9pp | Area chart |
| Top 1% Share | 21.3% (2014-15) | 22.6% (2022-23) | +1.3pp | Pie chart |
| Press Freedom | 140/180 (2014) | 157/180 (2026) | 17 places lower | Bar chart |
| Cess share of Union tax revenue | 13.5% (2014-15) | 16.4% (2025-26 RE) | +2.9pp | Donut chart |
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Press Contact: research@someperspective.info | Last updated: 10 October 2026