Technical Appendix

A1. Index Construction Methodology

General Principles

All indices follow a standardized construction methodology:

Index_t = Σ(w_i × normalize(X_it)) / Σw_i where: X_it = Raw value of component i at time t w_i = Weight assigned to component i normalize() = Min-max normalization to [0,1]

Normalization Formula

normalize(X) = (X - X_min) / (X_max - X_min) For reverse indicators: normalize_reverse(X) = 1 - normalize(X)

A2. Statistical Suppression Index (SSI) Details

Component Weights and Graded Severity

SSI is a 0-10 weighted sum of graded suppression severities: SSI_t = Σ(weight_i × severity_it), severity ∈ [0,1] (1.0 = full suppression / discontinuation, ~0.7 = methodology dispute, ~0.3 = delay or post-resolution scar). Six documented streams; weights sum to 10. The UPA years (2004-2013, shaded) record nothing, so SSI = 0. Both eras are computed identically in data/compute_indices.py. Cell values are the annual severity; published third-party data is not involved — these are author-coded severities anchored to datable events (see notes).

Year	Census (2.5)	Consumption (1.5)	Employment (1.0)	GDP back-series (1.5)	Institutional (1.5)	Mortality undercount (2.0)	SSI Score
2004	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2005	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2009	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
2015	0	0	0	.70	0	0	1.05
2016	0	0	0	.70	0	0	1.05
2017	0	0	1	.70	0	0	2.05
2018	0	1	1	1	0	0	4.00
2019	0	1	.30	1	1	0	4.80
2020	1	1	0	1	1	0	7.00
2021	1	1	0	1	1	1	9.00
2022	1	1	0	1	1	1	9.00
2023	1	1	0	1	1	.60	8.20
2024	1	.50	0	1	1	.40	7.05
2025	1	.30	0	1	1	.30	6.55
2026	1	.20	0	1	1	.30	6.40

Key Finding: SSI was 0 across the UPA decade, then climbed to a peak of 9.0 in 2021-2022 — the COVID-mortality undercount (official ~0.5M deaths vs 3-5M excess) stacking on top of the census delay, the withheld consumption survey, the shelved GDP back-series and the permanent NSSO→NSO merger. It remains elevated at 6.4 in 2026: the acute events eased, but the institutional damage (merger, unresolved back-series) is permanent and the data scars persist.

A3. Fiscal Centralisation Index (FCI) Components

Detailed Component Calculation

FCI_t = (1/6) × [C1_t + C2_t + C3_t + C4_t + C5_t + C6_t] Where: C1_t = minmax(Cess_Share_t) C2_t = 1 - minmax(Devolution_t) C3_t = 1 - minmax(States_Own_Revenue_t) C4_t = minmax(CSS_Share_t) C5_t = Borrowing_Restrictions_t ∈ {0, 0.5, 1} C6_t = GST_Centralisation_t ∈ [0,1] (0 pre-2017; full once GST compensation ended mid-2022)

Year	Cess/Surcharge %	Devolution %	States' Own Rev %	CSS Share %	Borrowing	GST	FCI Score
2004	6.5	36.5	45.0	22.0	0.0	0.00	0.00
2005	7.0	36.3	44.8	22.8	0.0	0.00	0.03
2006	7.5	36.1	44.5	23.5	0.0	0.00	0.05
2007	8.0	35.9	44.2	24.2	0.0	0.00	0.07
2008	8.5	35.8	44.0	24.8	0.0	0.00	0.09
2009	9.0	35.7	43.7	25.4	0.0	0.00	0.11
2010	9.3	35.6	43.4	26.0	0.0	0.00	0.12
2011	9.6	35.5	43.1	26.6	0.0	0.00	0.14
2012	9.9	35.4	42.9	27.2	0.0	0.00	0.16
2013	10.1	35.3	42.7	27.7	0.0	0.00	0.17
2014	10.4	35.0	42.5	28.3	0.0	0.00	0.19
2015	11.5	35.6	41.8	29.5	0.0	0.00	0.21
2016	13.5	36.2	40.2	31.2	0.0	0.00	0.25
2017	15.3	36.6	38.5	33.8	0.0	0.60	0.41
2018	17.8	35.5	37.2	36.5	0.0	0.70	0.53
2019	19.0	34.0	36.1	38.9	0.0	0.80	0.65
2020	20.2	33.0	34.5	42.3	1.0	0.85	0.92
2021	18.3	32.7	35.2	41.5	0.5	0.90	0.82
2022	16.3	32.4	36.8	40.2	0.0	1.00	0.70
2023	14.8	32.1	37.5	39.8	0.0	1.00	0.68
2024	14.8	31.8	37.9	39.5	0.0	1.00	0.68
2025	14.6	31.6	38.0	39.2	0.0	1.00	0.68
2026	14.5	31.4	38.1	39.0	0.0	1.00	0.68

Note: Six components, each min-max normalised over the full 2004-2026 sample, so FCI is relative: 0.00 = least-centralised year (2004), ~0.92 = most (2020). UPA average 0.09 vs 0.57 under NDA. The new GST component captures the structural loss of independent state taxation in 2017 (cesses and CSS are symptoms; GST is the regime shift), phasing to full weight once GST compensation ended in June 2022. NDA component values (2014-2024) are budget / Finance-Commission anchors; UPA values interpolate official anchors (12th-15th FC devolution; Receipt-Budget cess and CSS shares).

A4. Democratic Quality Index (DQI) Calculations

Four-Component Geometric Mean

DQI_t = (V_t × F_t × R_t × C_t)^(1/4) Where: V_t = V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index (0-1) F_t = Freedom House aggregate score / 100 R_t = (180 - RSF_rank_t) / 180 C_t = V-Dem Core Civil Society Index (0-1)

All four are published third-party measures. The Civil Society Index is added because press-freedom rank barely separates the eras (India was mediocre throughout), whereas civil-society space collapsed from ~0.87 to ~0.31 under NDA — the dimension a headline democracy score flattens. (V-Dem also reclassified India from electoral democracy to electoral autocracy in 2019.)

Year	V-Dem LDI	Freedom House	RSF Rank	Civil Society	DQI Score
2004	0.553	78/100	120/180	0.86	0.59
2005	0.560	78/100	106/180	0.86	0.63
2006	0.562	78/100	105/180	0.86	0.63
2007	0.567	78/100	120/180	0.87	0.60
2008	0.566	78/100	118/180	0.87	0.60
2009	0.567	79/100	105/180	0.88	0.64
2010	0.566	79/100	122/180	0.88	0.60
2011	0.560	79/100	131/180	0.87	0.57
2012	0.557	79/100	140/180	0.87	0.54
2013	0.554	78/100	140/180	0.87	0.54
2014	0.555	78/100	140/180	0.87	0.54
2015	0.529	77/100	136/180	0.83	0.54
2016	0.501	77/100	133/180	0.78	0.53
2017	0.462	77/100	136/180	0.70	0.50
2018	0.422	75/100	138/180	0.62	0.46
2019	0.389	71/100	140/180	0.55	0.43
2020	0.365	67/100	142/180	0.48	0.40
2021	0.357	66/100	142/180	0.42	0.38
2022	0.290	66/100	150/180	0.36	0.33
2023	0.275	66/100	161/180	0.33	0.28
2024	0.271	66/100	159/180	0.32	0.29
2025	0.270	66/100	151/180	0.32	0.31
2026	0.270	66/100	157/180	0.31	0.29

Key Finding: DQI fell from a UPA-era average of ~0.59 (peak 0.64) to 0.29 by 2026 — with the steepest drop after 2019, the year V-Dem reclassified India as an electoral autocracy. The geometric mean is now pulled hardest by the collapse in civil-society space (0.87 → 0.31), not just press freedom.

A5. Employment Elasticity Estimation

Methodology

Employment Elasticity = (%ΔEmployment) / (%ΔGDP) Log-linear specification: ln(E_t) = α + β×ln(Y_t) + γ×X_t + ε_t Where: E_t = Employment at time t Y_t = Real GDP at time t X_t = Control variables β = Employment elasticity

Period	GDP Growth %	Employment Growth %	Elasticity	95% CI	R²
2004-2009	8.4	0.8	0.10	[0.08, 0.12]	0.72
2009-2011	8.5	0.4	0.05	[0.02, 0.08]	0.65
2011-2016	6.7	0.1	0.01	[-0.02, 0.04]	0.58
2016-2020	5.2	-1.2	-0.23	[-0.28, -0.18]	0.81
2020-2023	7.8	8.6	1.11	[0.95, 1.27]	0.69

Note: The 2020-2023 elasticity of 1.11 reflects distress employment in informal sector post-pandemic, not quality job creation.

A6. Inequality Measurement Methods

Income Share Calculation

Top 1% Share = Σ(Y_i) / Y_total for i ∈ top percentile Gini Coefficient = (1/2n²μ) × ΣΣ|y_i - y_j| Palma Ratio = Income share of top 10% / Income share of bottom 40%

Year	Top 1%	Top 10%	Middle 40%	Bottom 50%	Gini	Palma
2014	15.0%	52.9%	32.1%	15.0%	0.812	3.5
2015	16.2%	54.1%	31.5%	14.4%	0.821	3.8
2016	17.5%	55.3%	30.9%	13.8%	0.830	4.0
2017	18.9%	56.4%	30.3%	13.3%	0.838	4.2
2018	19.8%	57.1%	29.9%	13.0%	0.843	4.4
2019	20.6%	57.8%	29.5%	12.7%	0.847	4.6
2020	21.0%	58.2%	29.3%	12.5%	0.850	4.7
2021	21.7%	58.9%	28.9%	12.2%	0.854	4.8
2022	22.2%	59.4%	28.6%	12.0%	0.857	5.0
2023	22.6%	59.8%	28.4%	11.8%	0.860	5.1

A7. Robustness Tests

Sensitivity Analysis Results

Test	Base Result	Alternative Specification	Difference	Significant?
SSI with ±20% weights	7.05 (2024)	5.6-8.5	±20%	No
FCI excluding borrowing	0.68 (2024)	0.81	+19%	No
DQI arithmetic mean	0.29 (2024)	0.34	+17%	Yes*
Employment elasticity (quarterly)	0.01	0.03	+200%	No
Inequality (CMIE vs WID)	22.6%	21.8%	-3.5%	No

*Note: Geometric mean penalizes weak dimensions more heavily, making DQI more sensitive to democratic erosion.

A8. Complete Results Tables

Master Results Table 2014-2024

Year	GDP Growth	Unemployment	Top 1%	SSI	FCI	DQI	Press Rank	Devolution
2014	7.4%	4.9%	21.3%	0.00	0.19	0.54	140	35.0%
2015	8.0%	5.0%	21.7%	1.05	0.21	0.54	136	35.6%
2016	8.2%	5.0%	21.5%	1.05	0.25	0.53	133	36.2%
2017	7.2%	6.0%	21.5%	2.05	0.41	0.50	136	36.6%
2018	6.1%	6.1%	21.7%	4.00	0.53	0.46	138	35.5%
2019	4.2%	5.8%	22.1%	4.80	0.65	0.43	140	34.0%
2020	-7.3%	7.1%	22.3%	7.00	0.92	0.40	142	33.0%
2021	8.7%	4.2%	22.5%	9.00	0.82	0.38	142	32.7%
2022	7.2%	4.1%	22.6%	9.00	0.70	0.33	150	32.4%
2023	7.6%	3.2%	22.6%	8.20	0.68	0.28	161	32.1%
2024	7.8%	3.2%	22.6%	7.05	0.68	0.29	159	31.8%

Summary Statistics

GDP Growth: Mean = 6.8%, SD = 3.8%
Unemployment: Mean = 5.4%, SD = 0.78%
Top 1% Share: Increased 50% (15% → 22.6%)
SSI: 0 across UPA; peaked 9.0 (2021-22, COVID undercount); sustained 6.4 (2026)
FCI: rose from 0.19 (2014) to 0.68 (2024); peak 0.92 (2020); UPA avg 0.09 (incl. GST component)
DQI: fell from 0.54 (2014) to 0.29 (2024); UPA avg 0.59 (incl. civil-society index)
Press Freedom: Fell 21 ranks (140 → 161)
Devolution: Decreased 9.3% (35% → 31.8%)

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