On 8 of 9 measures, India's record since 2014 is worse than in the decade before
The page is split where the governments changed. The UPA decade sits on the left and the NDA period on the right, each at its own width in years, so every chart below changes side between 2013 and 2014. Inflation is the one measure that improved. Growth was lower overall and higher once the pandemic year is left out.
By Dr. Varna Sri Raman · Updated 2026-10-10 · Version 2.54.0
The scorecard
Nine measures that can be compared across both periods
Each figure is the average of the years with a published value in that period. Under each pair is the series itself, year by year. Dashed lines are the two averages. Press freedom is a rank, drawn so that up is better.
UPA 2004-2013 NDA 2014-2026
GDP growth: UPA average 6.8%, NDA average 6.2%. Worse after 2014.
GDP growth
6.8%
worse
6.2%
CPI inflation: UPA average 8.0%, NDA average 4.8%. Better after 2014.
CPI inflation
8.0%
better
4.8%
Fiscal deficit, % of GDP: UPA average 4.6%, NDA average 5.0%. Worse after 2014.
Fiscal deficit, % of GDP
4.6%
worse
5.0%
Top 1% income share: UPA average 20.4%, NDA average 21.9%. Worse after 2014.
Top 1% income share
20.4%
worse
21.9%
Bottom 50% income share: UPA average 16.8%, NDA average 14.7%. Worse after 2014.
Bottom 50% income share
16.8%
worse
14.7%
Press freedom rank (of 180): UPA average 120, NDA average 145. Worse after 2014.
Press freedom rank (of 180)
120
worse
145
Statistical Suppression Index (0-10): UPA average 0.00, NDA average 4.78. Worse after 2014.
Statistical Suppression Index (0-10)
0.00
worse
4.78
Fiscal Centralisation Index (0-1): UPA average 0.30, NDA average 0.43. Worse after 2014.
Fiscal Centralisation Index (0-1)
0.30
worse
0.43
Democratic Quality Index (0-1): UPA average 0.57, NDA average 0.37. Worse after 2014.
Democratic Quality Index (0-1)
0.57
worse
0.37
8of 9 measures worse after 2014
Series that begin in 2017-18 with the labour force survey have no earlier counterpart on the same basis and are left out. The averages are computed from data.json each time the site is built, and the replication script in the repository reproduces them.
What the numbers show
Six findings, each with the series behind it
Every chart runs from 2004 at the left edge of the page to 2026 at the right, and the change of government falls on the dividing line.
Finding 1 of 6
Growth was lower over the whole period, and higher once the pandemic year is left out
The economy grew 6.2% a year on average from 2014-15 to 2025-26, against 6.8% from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The difference comes from 2020-21, when output fell 5.8%. Without that year the later period averaged 7.3%, above the earlier decade's 6.8% (7.2% without the 2008-09 crisis year). The series joins two bases, 2011-12 (with its back-series for the earlier years) and 2022-23 from 2023-24, and the 2015 rebasing first moved 2013-14 from 4.7% to 6.9%, so a gap of under one point is smaller than past revisions.
−10−50510200420082013201420202026
MoSPI national accounts; World Bank for 2004-2013. Year shown is the fiscal year that starts in it.
Finding 2 of 6
Inflation is the one measure on which the later period does better
Consumer prices rose 4.8% a year on average after 2014, against 8.0% in the decade before, when inflation reached double digits in 2009, 2010 and 2013. Inflation targeting began in 2016, and the oil-price collapse of 2014-16 came at the start of the later period. The site's inflation explainer sets out how much of the fall each explanation can carry.
02581012200420082013201420202026
World Bank for 2004-2013; MoSPI CPI (Combined) after. Calendar years; 2026 is January to August on the new 2024 base.
Finding 3 of 6
The top 1% took a larger share of income than at any time since 1922
The richest 1% of adults received 22.6% of national income in 2022-23, up from 18.4% in 2004, the highest in the World Inequality Lab's series, which begins in 1922. The bottom half's share fell from 18.8% to a low of 13.9% in 2017 and was 15.0% in 2022-23. No annual figure has been published after 2022.
181920212223200420082013201420202026
Bharti, Chancel, Piketty and Somanchi (2024), World Inequality Lab Working Paper 2024/09.
Finding 4 of 6
Press freedom and democratic quality fell furthest
India ranked 157 of 180 on the RSF index in 2026, against an average rank of about 120 in the UPA decade, when RSF ranked between 167 and 179 countries. The Democratic Quality Index, which combines V-Dem, Freedom House and RSF scores, fell from 0.49 in 2014 to 0.28 in 2026. V-Dem first classified India as an electoral autocracy in its March 2021 Democracy Report.
100120140160180200420082013201420202026
Reporters Without Borders, yearly index files. RSF published no separate 2011 index; its 2011-12 rank is used for both years.
Finding 5 of 6
Official statistics were withheld, delayed or disputed in ways they were not before 2014
The Statistical Suppression Index scores documented events: the census postponed in 2020, the 2017-18 consumption survey scrapped in 2019, the jobs survey held back before the 2019 election, the merger of the statistical offices and the COVID death count. It is zero for every UPA year, peaked at 9.0 in 2021-22 and was 4.65 in 2026, when the census, now on a notified schedule, counts as a delay. The severities are the author's coding and the most contestable part of the study.
0246810200420082013201420202026
Author's coding of dated events, data/compute_indices.py.
Finding 6 of 6
The fiscal index is higher after 2014 because of GST and the 2020 borrowing conditions
The Fiscal Centralisation Index averaged 0.30 in the UPA decade and 0.43 after 2014, with a peak of 0.87 in 2020. On the four measured fiscal ratios alone the earlier period was slightly more centralised (0.49 against 0.45), and states' share of gross tax revenue rose after the 14th Finance Commission. The higher score after 2014 comes from the two coded components: GST, which folded most state indirect taxes into a shared tax (states still levy VAT on petroleum and alcohol, stamp duty and electricity duty), and the borrowing conditions of 2020-21.
0.00.20.40.60.81.0200420082013201420202026
Finance Commission reports, Union Receipt Budgets, RBI Handbook Table 94; GST and borrowing coded.
The three indices
Built the same way for both periods, from one script
All three are computed by data/compute_indices.py for every year from 2004 to 2026. The inputs and their sources are listed in the code and in the methodology.
SSI
4.65of 10, 2026
Statistical Suppression Index. Graded severities of documented events across six streams, with a decay after an event is resolved. UPA average 0.00, NDA average 4.78.
FCI
0.35of 1, 2026
Fiscal Centralisation Index. Four published fiscal ratios and two coded events, GST and the 2020 borrowing conditions. UPA average 0.30, NDA average 0.43.
DQI
0.28of 1, 2026
Democratic Quality Index. The geometric mean of V-Dem's liberal democracy and civil society scores, Freedom House and RSF. UPA average 0.57, NDA average 0.37.