Data › Forecasts
Retrieved 2026-10-10
What the forecasters expect
Forecasts published by other institutions for India's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. The site makes no forecast of its own. India's fiscal year runs April to March, and every row is on that basis unless its note says otherwise.
MoSPI's Provisional Estimates of 5 June 2026 put real GDP growth for 2025-26 at 7.7 per cent; growth in April to June 2026, the first quarter of 2026-27, was 7.8 per cent (NSO, 31 August 2026). Source.
Growth and inflation forecasts
| Institution and publication | Growth 2026-27 | Growth 2027-28 | CPI inflation 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of India, Monetary Policy Committee MPC resolution, 5 to 7 October 2026, 2026-10-07 | 7.1 | none | 5.2 |
| World Bank South Asia Economic Update, October 2026, 2026-10-06 | 7.1 | 7.2 | none |
| OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, September 2026, 2026-09-23 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| Asian Development Bank Asian Development Outlook, September 2026, 2026-09-23 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026, Table 1, 2026-07-08 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 |
The Union Budget for 2026-27 assumes nominal GDP growth of 10 per cent and sets a fiscal deficit of 4.3 per cent of GDP. Budget at a Glance 2026-27.
What each forecast says, in its own words
- Reserve Bank of India, Monetary Policy Committee. Q1 2027-28 growth projected at 7.1 per cent; the RBI publishes no full-year figure for 2027-28. The publication says: “real GDP growth for 2026-27 is projected at 7.1 per cent ... CPI inflation is projected to be 5.2 per cent for 2026-27”
- World Bank. Takes 2025-26 as 7.8 per cent, against MoSPI's Provisional Estimate of 7.7. The publication says: “In India, growth is expected to slow to 7.1 percent in FY2026/27, 0.5 percentage points higher than previously expected.”
- OECD. Inflation is for calendar 2026 (4.2 per cent for 2027). Takes 2025-26 as 7.8 per cent. The publication says: “growth is projected to fall from 7.8% in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26 to 7.1% in FY 2026-27 and 6.5% in FY 2027-28.”
- Asian Development Bank. ADB calls 2026-27 'FY2026'. The 2027-28 growth figure is from DD News's report of the release (23 September 2026); ADB's page states 4.0 per cent inflation for 2027-28. The publication says: “India's growth is projected at 7.0% in FY2026 (ending 31 March 2027)”
- IMF. The July Update carries no inflation projection; the 4.7 per cent is the April 2026 WEO. The October 2026 WEO is due in mid-October and replaces this row. The publication says: “India 5/ 7.1 7.7 6.4 6.7”
The forecasts disagree by more than a point, and the IMF is the low outlier because its July figure predates the first-quarter outturn of 7.8 per cent. None of them is a measurement. When a forecast year ends, the site replaces it with MoSPI's published estimate.